Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Nintendo Switch 2 Projected as Top-Selling Next-Gen Console, Even Before Release

DFC Intelligence, a leading video game market research firm, forecasts robust sales for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, projects sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 alone, outpacing all competitors.

Dominating the Market by 2028

The report positions Nintendo as the clear console market leader, with Microsoft and Sony facing challenges to keep pace. This projection stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start in the next-gen console race. With limited immediate competition, DFC Intelligence anticipates sales exceeding 80 million units by 2028. The report even suggests that Nintendo might struggle to meet the projected demand.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028, but the three-year gap (barring unexpected releases) gives the Switch 2 a considerable advantage. The report suggests only one of these post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve substantial success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's success is further underscored by the Switch's remarkable achievement of surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales, reaching 46.6 million units sold. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella highlighted this milestone on BlueSky, noting the Switch's position as the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This success is noteworthy, despite a reported 3% decline in yearly Switch sales.

Industry Growth on the Horizon

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole points to a more than 20x growth over the past three decades and anticipates a return to healthy growth through the end of the decade, starting with a strong 2025. The Switch 2, alongside the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, is expected to fuel this resurgence.

The global gaming audience is projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, driven by the increasing accessibility of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This expanding market is also boosting hardware sales across both PC and consoles.